Tuesday, January 5, 2010

An introduction to, and background of Win.ly - Part 2

In part 1, I gave a history of how the initial idea behind Win.ly came about.

Now a little more about how it all came together.  There are really three elements to estimating the chances you have of winning a game.  They are:
  1. Number of prizes
  2. Frequency of prizes won
  3. Number of visitors competing for these prizes.
If you knew all three of these, you'd know the exact odds of winning a prize.

Now #1 and #2 are relatively easy.  All of these games are required to publish rules that specifically state quite a few parameters which can then be used to always exactly determine the number and frequency of prize awardings.

But there is no way to know the number of visitors exactly unless you have access to inside reports from those who run the game.

But in recent years, a number of services have arisen that give some glimpses into traffic.  The challenge for the Win.ly Rating Engine was to gather these diverse statistics from various sources and then arrange them appropriately to gather a close approximation of the traffic.

That, along with the exact answers to 1 and 2 give us a close approximation of the odds of winning any given game.

And that is the magic of Win.ly.  The rating engine runs every night, automatically gathers thousands of statistical points from various services, rates every single promotion based on estimated odds of winning, then ranks them in order from best to worst.

And the difference from best to worst is quite significant.  More on the odds we've found in a later post.  But promotions at the top of the list have proven to win in less than two weeks in some circumstances.

Promotions at the bottom you could most likely play for several lifetimes and never win.

So the value for Win.ly is not only providing a tool that might allow a player to win more prizes, but also one that will save a lot of time that might otherwise be wasted on games that have extremely low odds of winning.

Sign up for a month of premium membership at Win.ly.  It doesn't cost very much.  And then let us know your results.  We're pretty sure that you'll be more than impressed.

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